The 2025 Bihar Assembly elections have concluded with a historic voter turnout of 66.91 the highest since 1951 setting the stage for results on November 14, 2025, in the 243-seat house where 122 seats secure a majority. Multiple exit polls, including those from Chanakya Strategies, Today’s Chanakya, and aggregates like NDTV’s Poll of Exit Polls, unanimously project a victory for the Nitish Kumar-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), estimating 121-209 seats and a 43% vote share. The opposition Mahagathbandhan (MGB), comprising RJD, Congress, and Left parties, is forecasted at 32-118 seats with 41%, while Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) manages up to 2 seats at 4%. These projections, drawn from surveys across 2,000+ polling stations, reflect a tight contest influenced by anti-incumbency after 20 years of NDA rule, yet underscore public priorities like unemployment and social equity, demanding robust governance accountability for Bihar’s development.
Overall Seat and Vote Share Projections: NDA’s Narrow but Decisive Lead
Eleven major exit polls ranging from Matrize and JVC to Dainik Bhaskar and Peoples Pulse converge on an NDA majority, with NDTV’s aggregate at 146 seats for NDA, 92 for MGB, and 1 for JSP. Specific ranges include 133-167 seats for NDA (per nine polls) and 73-91 for MGB (Dainik Bhaskar). Vote shares remain razor-thin: 43% NDA, 41% MGB, 4% JSP, with minimal urban-rural divergence (NDA 44% urban, 43% rural). This slim margin, against a backdrop of MGB’s 2020 tally of 110 seats, signals voter fatigue with NDA’s economic record but appreciation for welfare schemes. The JSP’s negligible impact highlights barriers for newcomers in Bihar’s bipolar landscape. As counting approaches, these forecasts call for transparent processes to validate public mandate, ensuring governance aligns with electoral realities for inclusive progress.
Age and Gender Breakdowns: Youth Mobilization vs. Women’s Consolidation
Demographic data from the polls reveals sharp divides: first-time voters (18-19) backed MGB at 46% versus NDA’s 37%, extending to 44% MGB in the 20-29 group reflecting youth disillusionment with job scarcity, where over 20 lakh migrate annually. Preferences invert with age, nearing parity in 30-39 (43% NDA, 42% MGB) and peaking at 51% NDA for 70+. Gender trends favor NDA among women (45% vs. 40% MGB), crediting Nitish Kumar’s initiatives like Rs 10,000 aid to 75 lakh under Mukhyamantri Mahila Samriddhi Yojana, while men tilted MGB at 42%. Women’s record turnout 9.93% higher than men in phase 2 marks a historic gender-inclusive poll, transforming from 1952’s 6% gap. These patterns urge targeted reforms: youth skilling and gender-sensitive policies to harmonize aspirations across divides.
Employment Insights: Unemployed and Students as MGB Strongholds
Employment-based analysis exposes economic fault lines, with MGB dominating the unemployed (49% vs. 34% NDA) and students (48% vs. 33%), amplifying grievances over Bihar’s 7.6% unemployment rate and migration crisis. NDA, conversely, leads self-employed (49% vs. 36%) and housewives (48% vs. 37%), buoyed by agricultural supports and household aids. This polarization, amid MGB’s campaign on job guarantees, positions employment as the election’s fulcrum. Governance must respond with industrial incentives, vocational hubs, and anti-migration measures to convert voter signals into tangible welfare, preventing further exodus and fostering self-reliance.
Caste Dynamics: Core Loyalties and Broader NDA Appeal
Caste, Bihar’s electoral prism, shows MGB retaining Muslim-Yadav bastions at 79-90% (vs. NDA’s 6%), comprising 33% of voters and fueling rural consolidation. Yet NDA sweeps others: 60%+ in upper castes (Brahmins, Rajputs, Bhumihars), 58-68% in OBCs (Kurmi, Koeri), 61% EBCs, 64% SCs (Paswan), and 61% STs/Nishads. This 63% non-MY base offsets opposition strengths, though MGB’s failure to penetrate OBCs limits expansion. Polls affirm caste’s enduring role, yet advocate transcending it via universal quotas and economic inclusion for social cohesion.
Implications and Path Forward: Reforms for Bihar’s Resilience
With results imminent, exit polls portray NDA continuity amid MGB’s youth surge, JSP’s flop, and record participation by 7.5 crore voters. The 2025 polls, hailed “historic” by CEC Gyanesh Kumar, test opposition unity and NDA’s delivery. Key imperatives: job-centric budgets, caste-neutral welfare, and electoral transparency. Bihar’s future hinges on honoring these trends through assertive, equitable governance, ensuring public welfare amid challenges.
